Trading expectancy calculator
Expected result per trade, profit factor and payoff ratio.
Example inputs, not market prices: change them to your trade.
Result
How it is computed
E = Win rate × Average win − (1 − Win rate) × Average loss
Expectancy is what one trade makes on average. Divided by the average loss it becomes a result in R, comparable between strategies of different sizes.
Worked example
Inputs
- Win rate (%)
- 45
- Average win
- 150
- Average loss
- 100
Result
Expectancy per trade
+12.5
- Expectancy per trade (R)
- +0.13R
- Payoff ratio
- 1.5
- Profit factor
- 1.23
Computed on the server by the same code as the form above (calculator table 2026-10-04.1).
Questions
What is the profit factor?
Gross profit divided by gross loss. Above 1, the strategy makes money over the sample.
Can I paste my trades?
Yes: under More options, one result per line, negative for a loss. Break-even trades count in the total but neither as wins nor as losses.
How many trades make a reliable figure?
The more the better; a few dozen trades leave a wide margin of error.
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A calculation, not a forecast. Not investment advice.