ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.50% as inflation reaches 3.8%

What happened

The European Central Bank held its deposit facility rate at 2.50% on Thursday, Oct. 29, with no change from the last meeting. The deposit rate also stood at 2.50% after the decision of September 10, 2026, which means the October outcome marks no change at all. You can follow every release of this event on the ECB rate decision calendar, which lists the decision and the next meeting dates.

The main refinancing operations rate also held at 2.65%, unchanged from the September 10, 2026 level of 2.65% set at the previous decision. The marginal lending facility rate stayed at 2.90%, the same 2.90% recorded on September 10, 2026, so the ceiling of the corridor did not move. Both rates therefore keep their gap to the deposit rate of 2.50%, with the marginal lending rate remaining above the main refinancing rate.

The ECB wrote: “The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively.” That single sentence covers the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility, all in one line. The ECB published the decision on Thursday, Oct. 29, and its release is the source for each of the three rates reported here.

Why it matters

The wording frames the October meeting as a hold on every rate, with no cut and no hike in the outcome. The quoted sentence puts the deposit rate at 2.50% first, ahead of the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate. That ordering matches the release, where the decision rate sits at 2.50% and the other two rates sit at 2.65% and 2.90%.

The deposit rate stood at 2.00% on April 30, 2026, then rose to 2.25% on June 11, 2026, a small step up. On July 23, 2026 the rate held at 2.25%, unchanged from the June decision, before it rose again to 2.50% on September 10, 2026. That sequence holds small increases in June and September, and the October decision at 2.50% left the level where September put it.

Before that, the rate sat at 2.00% on October 30, 2025 and stayed at 2.00% on December 18, 2025, with no change between those meetings. It held at 2.00% on February 5, 2026 and again at 2.00% on March 19, 2026, keeping the first months free of any move. Each of those decisions was unchanged from the one before it, so the plateau at 2.00% reaches back to the decision of October 30, 2025.

Eurostat reported euro area inflation (HICP, year on year) at 3.8% for September 2026, a figure confirmed as final by the EU statistics office. The annual rate jumped from 3.2% for August 2026 to 3.8%, which is a large move for this series. These are separate official figures from Eurostat and the ECB, each with its own period, and we set them side by side only.

The deposit rate of 2.50% now sits well below inflation of 3.8%, which means the policy rate trails the annual price rise. Inflation rose by a large step while the ECB left its rate unchanged, and you can track each decision on the ECB rate decision releases. That is the tension here: a rate at 2.50% next to inflation of 3.8% for September 2026, after 3.2% the month before.

What it changes for traders

If inflation stays near 3.8%, the deposit rate of 2.50% would remain the policy setting that euro rate instruments price against. The main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90% would shift with any change, exposing euro short-term rate contracts. The euro itself could react if a later decision departs from the current setting, because the rate gap with other currencies would change.

The next ECB rate decision falls on Thursday, Dec. 17, 2026, when the bank will publish the deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending rates. The meeting after that comes on Thursday, Feb. 4, 2027, and it will publish the same rates against the 2.50% level in force today. These dates follow this Thursday, Oct. 29 decision, and each is a scheduled meeting that will add to the deposit rate path.

If inflation of 3.8% persists before Thursday, Dec. 17, 2026, the ECB could move off 2.50%, and euro rate instruments would reprice. If the ECB keeps its rate on Thursday, Feb. 4, 2027, the gap between the policy rate and inflation would stay open and keep instruments sensitive. If you trade a funded challenge around these dates, check the prop firm news rules first, because news trading rules differ from firm to firm.