Fed holds its upper bound at 4% as inflation stays elevated

What happened

The Fed announced its decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 GMT) and left the upper bound of its target range at 4%. The September 16, 2026 decision also put the upper bound at 4%, so the rate holds at that level after the meeting. Our FOMC rate decision calendar page lists the release time and past outcomes for this recurring event.

The lower bound of the federal funds target range also holds at 3.75% after the October 28, 2026 decision. It is unchanged from the September 16, 2026 meeting, when the lower bound stood at 3.75%. Together the two bounds give the full range the committee left in place on that day.

The Federal Reserve Board described the decision in its statement, published at the same time as the range itself. It wrote “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” The wording confirms that the committee kept both bounds where they were set at the previous meeting.

Why it matters

The Fed ties each decision to its legal goals of maximum employment and stable prices, and it framed this hold as support for that dual mandate. The decision came on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 GMT) with both bounds unchanged from the prior meeting. The hold therefore balances employment and price stability while inflation stays above where it was a year ago.

The upper bound stood at 4% at the October 29, 2025 meeting and then fell to 3.75% at the December 10, 2025 decision. It held at 3.75% at the July 29, 2026 meeting. The September 16, 2026 move brought it back up to 4%, a small rise.

Earlier in the year the upper bound sat at 3.75% on January 28, 2026, then at 3.75% on March 18, 2026 and 3.75% on April 29, 2026. It stayed at 3.75% on June 17, 2026. Those meetings show a flat plateau before the latest change, as the FOMC rate decision releases archive confirms.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index rose 3.4% year over year in August 2026. That is a small decline from 3.7% in July 2026, and both readings are final. The figures sit beside the decision, side by side, as separate official series.

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, stood at 3.0% year over year in August 2026, according to the same bureau. In July 2026 the core reading was 3.3%, so core inflation fell by a small margin. Both core figures are final and remain at a high level.

What it changes for traders

A hold at 4% with a lower bound of 3.75% keeps the cost of dollar funding steady. If inflation of 3.4% headline and 3.0% core keeps the committee cautious, Treasury yields could stay supported. Equity indices and the dollar would then react mainly to the tone of the statement.

The next FOMC decision is scheduled for Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2026, when the committee will publish its target range for the federal funds rate. Another meeting follows on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2027 with the same type of decision. Each date gives a new reading of the range against inflation.

If the next PCE readings keep falling from 3.4%, the committee would have more room to consider a lower range at the Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2026 meeting. Gold and rate-sensitive indices could respond to that shift through lower real yields. Check the prop firm news rules before trading around these dates.