What Is the US PCE Price Index and How to Read It?

The PCE price index measures changes in the prices of goods and services bought by consumers in the United States. The year-on-year reading was 3.4% for August 2026, a preliminary figure.

Who publishes it, when

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis describes the gauge this way: “The PCE price index, released each month in the Personal Income and Outlays report, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States.” The agency published the latest reading on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 GMT). That release covered August 2026 and carried a preliminary status.

The bureau also says this about its scope: “The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.” The next release arrives on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 GMT), and you can track it on the economic calendar. Mark that date before you plan your trading week.

How to read it

The year-on-year figure compares prices with the same month a year earlier. In June 2026, the index stood at 3.7%, a preliminary reading. That gives you the starting point for the next two months.

In July 2026, the index was 3.7%, also preliminary, and it holds at the June 2026 level. The reading was unchanged, so the yearly pace of price increases did not move that month. Flat prints like this show no change in direction.

In August 2026, the index edges down to 3.4% from 3.7%, and the bureau labels the figure preliminary. The easing is small, and preliminary numbers can change in later releases. Read the US personal income and outlays page for the full report.

What moves markets

The index covers a wide range of consumer expenses, so price changes in many categories can move it. It also reflects changes in consumer behavior, as the bureau notes. That breadth is why the figure can matter for rates.

If yearly readings stay high, the outlook for rates could shift, and rate-sensitive instruments such as the dollar, equity indices and gold could react. A softer reading could pull in the opposite direction. The next release on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 GMT) will test that view.

Common reading mistakes

• Treating a preliminary figure as final. The August 2026 reading of 3.4% carries a preliminary status, so later releases can change it, and you should not treat it as settled.
• Reading one small easing as a trend. The move from 3.7% to 3.4% is small, and the June 2026 and July 2026 readings were the same, so one print proves little.
• Confusing monthly and yearly readings. This series compares prices with a year earlier, so it differs from a month on month change, and you should check the label before you compare figures.
• Assuming it is the same as other inflation gauges. The bureau describes a wide range of consumer expenses, so check which measure a headline cites. Know the prop firm news rules before release day.